United States politics
The recordFiled October 18, 2026Checked October 18, 2026
Sides disagreeUkraine's refinery strikes are pushing diesel and oil prices up, but they aren't the main reason prices are high.
Trump said Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries are "making the world oil price higher." The International Energy Agency says damage from Ukrainian drones has cut Russian diesel output and exports, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration says tight diesel markets are adding pressure on crude. The IEA's report is built around the war in the Middle East.
See primary source: International Energy AgencyLeft
Lean left · Left-leaning US article
Trump says Ukraine resuming strikes on Russian oil sites is a ‘disgrace’
Yuliya Talmazan · October 16, 2026
“If you tell me that Zelenskyy is again shooting at refineries, all he’s doing is making the world oil price higher,” Trump told Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty.
Right
Lean right · Right-leaning US article
Trump Lashes Out at Zelensky Over Russian Refinery Attacks: 'Disgrace'
Brendan Cole · October 16, 2026
"All he's doing is making the world oil price higher," the U.S. president continued. "Well, I think that's a disgrace."
We’re interested in your thoughts
Before you see our verdict, what’s your call on this claim?What’s your call on this claim? Our verdict is shown below.
FP verdict
The main point holds, with a caveat.
Confidence score: 6/10 — The IEA ties Russian diesel losses to Ukrainian drone damage and the EIA says tight diesel pushes up crude, but neither puts a size on Ukraine's share, and the IEA's report centers on the Middle East war.
Sourced from International Energy Agency, the main point holds, with a caveat.
“If you tell me that Zelenskyy is again shooting at refineries, all he’s doing is making the world oil price higher.”
The International Energy Agency's October report says Russian diesel production and exports "have slumped in recent months due to increasing damage to refineries from Ukrainian drones," adding to a global diesel shortage. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says tight diesel markets are adding upward pressure on crude prices. Put together, that means the strikes add to price pressure. But the IEA's report centers on the war in the Middle East and the loss of Strait of Hormuz flows, so "all he's doing" overstates Ukraine's share.
Primary source: Oil Market Report - October 2026 (International Energy Agency)
Red versus Blue
Based on the full articles
- Shared factsBoth quote Trump saying Zelenskyy is "making the world oil price higher" and calling the strikes a "disgrace."
- Different emphasisNBC News, from the left, sets the line against Trump's own war with Iran. Newsweek, from the right, focuses on the Trump-Zelensky clash over diesel sanctions and Starlink.
- Material differencesNBC News pushes back on the price claim by pointing to the Iran war; Newsweek doesn't test it. Neither cites the IEA, which says drone damage has cut Russian diesel output and exports, or the EIA, which says diesel tightness is pushing up crude.
Shows its work
How this rating was reached
- Lie
- Doesn't hold up
- Misleading
- Mostly false
- Half true
- Mostly true
- True
- Unproven
This verdict partly aligns with the primary source, International Energy Agency: Russian gasoil output and exports "have slumped in recent months due to increasing damage to refineries from Ukrainian drones"; the Middle East war and Hormuz flows remain the main story.
Why it holds up
Why mostly true
The IEA says damage to Russian refineries from Ukrainian drones has cut Russian diesel output and exports, adding to a global diesel shortage, and the EIA says extreme tightness in diesel markets adds upward pressure on crude. We rate it mostly true rather than true because "all he's doing" leaves out the war in the Middle East, which the IEA's report centers on, and neither agency puts a number on Ukraine's share.
01
The claim
NBC News reported: "“If you tell me that Zelenskyy is again shooting at refineries, all he’s doing is making the world oil price higher,” Trump told Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty." Trump added: "I think that’s a disgrace." Newsweek carried only the part "All he's doing is making the world oil price higher."
02
What the energy agency says about Russian refineries
The International Energy Agency's October Oil Market Report says the loss of Hormuz crude flows cut refinery runs in Asia, and then: "Amplifying these losses, Russian gasoil production and exports have slumped in recent months due to increasing damage to refineries from Ukrainian drones." Gasoil is the diesel family of fuels.
03
How diesel moves crude prices
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's October outlook says: "Additional upward pressure on crude oil prices stems from extreme tightness in diesel markets that raises demand for crude oil in order for refiners to meet diesel demand." It now expects Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 higher than its forecast a month earlier.
04
The bigger driver
The IEA's report is built around the war in the Middle East: Gulf exports, Hormuz flows and attacks on regional energy sites. It says Brent futures "have risen by 13% since the start of September to around $107/bbl." The EIA cites "The attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia" as a source of volatility.
05
Would easing Russian diesel limits help?
The IEA says the recently announced easing of Russian diesel export restrictions "is unlikely to materially alter the global gasoil market balance as the current export constraints stem from a lack of operational Russian refinery capacity." In other words, the drone damage is what's limiting Russian diesel exports.
06
The left-leaning framing
NBC News put the line in the context of Trump's broader fight with Zelenskyy and added: "Trump has sought to blame Ukraine’s strikes for destabilizing the price of diesel globally, despite the impact of his own war with Iran."
07
The right-leaning framing
Newsweek led with Trump calling the strikes a "disgrace" and reported Zelensky's criticism of Trump for easing sanctions on Russian diesel and for limits on Starlink. It didn't test the oil-price claim.
08
The buried fact
The energy agencies support part of what Trump said: the IEA says Ukrainian drone damage has cut Russian diesel supply, and the EIA says tight diesel is adding pressure on crude. NBC's line about Trump's war with Iran is right that the Middle East is the bigger factor, but it doesn't say the strikes also matter.
09
What each side gets right, and hides
NBC News is right that Trump's own war with Iran weighs on prices, but it reads as if Ukraine's strikes don't matter. Newsweek reports the quote and Zelensky's response but never checks whether the strikes raise prices.
10
The question to ask
If the strikes raise diesel prices, how much of today's price is Ukraine and how much is the Middle East, and why won't either government say?
| Figure | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures, early October 2026 (IEA) | Around $107 a barrel, up 13% since the start of September | International Energy Agency |
| EIA forecast for Brent, 4th quarter 2026 | $105 a barrel | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| U.S. average diesel price, September 2026 (EIA) | $6.29 a gallon | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
Caveats and limits
Not verified
- Neither agency gives a number for how much of the price rise comes from Ukrainian strikes, and we didn't estimate one.
- We didn't see the Newsmax interview itself; the wording comes from NBC News and Newsweek, which match.
Caveats
- This report rates whether Ukraine's refinery strikes raise world oil prices. It doesn't rate whether the strikes are a "disgrace" or a legitimate military target.
- A separate report on this site covers whether the strikes resumed after Starlink was restricted. This one covers only the price claim.
- Refinery strikes hit fuel output most directly; their effect on crude prices runs through diesel demand, as the EIA describes.
Sources
Primary · official record
Oil Market Report - October 2026International Energy Agency · October 14, 2026
Primary · official record
Secondary reporting
Trump says Ukraine resuming strikes on Russian oil sites is a ‘disgrace’NBC News · Yuliya Talmazan · October 16, 2026
Secondary reporting
Trump Lashes Out at Zelensky Over Russian Refinery Attacks: 'Disgrace'Newsweek · Brendan Cole · October 16, 2026
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