United States politics
The recordFiled October 17, 2026Checked October 17, 2026
Prices rose 3.7% over the year to September, and a New York Fed study finds tariffs pushed consumer prices up; energy drove most of the latest jump.
At a rally in Kalispell, Mont., Trump said "Tariffs don't cause inflation" and "We have very little inflation." The Labor Department's September report shows prices up 3.7% from a year earlier, and New York Fed economists estimate about a quarter of tariff increases reach consumer prices within a year.
See primary source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsLeft
Lean left · Left-leaning US article
Trump touts booming economy at Montana rally, but supporters feel the pinch
Peter Nicholas · October 15, 2026
On a day when the U.S. inflation rate was shown to have climbed 3.7% over the past year, President Donald Trump said at a rally in Montana on Wednesday, “We have very little inflation.”
Right
Lean right · Right-leaning US article
Trump Touts Weapons ‘Super Range,’ Guns and Tariffs at Montana Rally
Steven Frank · October 14, 2026
“Tariffs don’t cause inflation. They cause wealth,” he added.
We’re interested in your thoughts
Before you see our verdict, what’s your call on this claim?What’s your call on this claim? Our verdict is shown below.
FP verdict
The central claim doesn't hold.
Confidence score: 3/10 — BLS shows 3.7% inflation and New York Fed research finds about 26% tariff pass-through to consumer prices; the claim holds only in that energy, not tariffs, drove the latest jump.
Sourced from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the central claim doesn't hold.
“Every once in a while, you hear someone say, 'Tariffs caused inflation.' We have very little inflation. Tariffs don't cause inflation. They cause wealth.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 14 that consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, up from 3.4% in August. A New York Fed study of the 2025 tariffs finds about 26% of the tariff increase passes through to consumer prices. Most of September's jump came from energy, not tariffs: the energy index was up 20.4% over the year and prices excluding food and energy rose 2.6%.
Primary source: Consumer Price Index News Release — September 2026 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Red versus Blue
Based on the full articles
- Shared factsBoth report that Trump, campaigning in Kalispell on Oct. 14, said there is very little inflation and defended his tariffs as a source of wealth, on the same day the report showing 3.7% annual inflation came out.
- Different emphasisNBC News, from the left, leads with the gap between Trump's “very little inflation” and the 3.7% figure and interviews supporters who say they feel squeezed by grocery, housing and fuel costs. Newsweek, from the right, leads with the weapons “super range” and guns, and gives the tariff defense its own section with his sawmill argument.
- Material differencesNewsweek prints “Tariffs don’t cause inflation” and notes the inflation figures don't support Trump's 1.7% remark; NBC paraphrases the tariff point as tariffs having “produced considerable wealth” and doesn't quote the causation line. Neither says energy drove most of the rise.
Shows its work
How this rating was reached
- Lie
- Doesn't hold up
- Misleading
- Mostly false
- Half true
- Mostly true
- True
- Unproven
This verdict doesn't align with the primary source, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: All items +3.7% over 12 months; less food and energy +2.6%; energy +20.4%.
Why it doesn't hold up
Why mostly false
Two separate records cut against the claim: BLS puts inflation at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, and New York Fed research finds tariffs do raise consumer prices. The part that holds is narrower: tariffs aren't the main driver of September's increase.
01
The claim
Newsweek quoted Trump in Kalispell: "Every once in a while, you hear someone say, ‘Tariffs caused inflation.’ We have very little inflation," and "Tariffs don't cause inflation. They cause wealth."
02
What the inflation data says
BLS, Oct. 14, 2026: "The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August." The release adds that "The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase."
03
What research says about tariffs
New York Fed economists Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David E. Weinstein wrote: "We find that for every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices increase by about a quarter of a percent after one year." Their staff report finds "about 26 percent of the tariff increase passes through to consumer prices."
04
The left-leaning framing
NBC News opened: "On a day when the U.S. inflation rate was shown to have climbed 3.7% over the past year, President Donald Trump said at a rally in Montana on Wednesday, “We have very little inflation.”" It reported he said that tariffs "produced considerable wealth."
05
The right-leaning framing
Newsweek ran the tariff remarks under the heading "Tariffs Cause Wealth" and reported Trump's argument that tariffs protected sawmills. It added: "His comments came on the same day that the latest inflation report showed prices rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier and 0.6 percent from August."
06
The buried fact
Neither article says what drove the jump. In the BLS release, the energy index rose 20.4% over the year and gasoline accounted for over half of September's monthly increase, while prices excluding food and energy rose 2.6%. Tariffs raise prices, but the latest surge is mostly energy.
07
What each side gets right, and hides
NBC sets Trump's "very little inflation" against the 3.7% figure but doesn't test his tariff claim or say energy drove the rise. Newsweek prints the tariff quotes in full and notes the 3.7% report, but doesn't say whether tariffs raise prices.
08
The question to ask
If tariffs pass about a quarter of their size through to consumer prices within a year, how much of today's 3.7% is tariffs, and how much is the energy shock?
| Figure | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer prices, 12 months to September 2026 | +3.7% | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Prices excluding food and energy, 12 months to September | +2.6% | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Energy index, 12 months to September | +20.4% | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Share of the tariff increase passed to consumer prices (NY Fed) | About 26% | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
Caveats and limits
Not verified
- We didn't find a published estimate that splits September's 3.7% inflation rate into tariff and energy shares.
Caveats
- Newsweek also reported Trump said he brought inflation down "to 1.7 percent from 19 percent"; it paraphrased that line, so this report doesn't rate it.
- The New York Fed estimates compare more and less tariff-exposed goods and hold overall conditions fixed; they don't say how much of the 3.7% headline rate is due to tariffs.
Sources
Primary · official record
Primary · official record
Primary · official record
Secondary reporting
Trump touts booming economy at Montana rally, but supporters feel the pinchNBC News · Peter Nicholas · October 15, 2026
Secondary reporting
Trump Touts Weapons ‘Super Range,’ Guns and Tariffs at Montana RallyNewsweek · Steven Frank · October 14, 2026
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